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<Research>M Stanley Forecasts Potential Economic Support Measures by CN in 2Q25, 2H25 (Table)
Recommend 74 Positive 134 Negative 75 |
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Morgan Stanley’s report forecast potential economic support measures China may introduce in 2Q25 and 2H25 in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement last week of a slew of “reciprocal tariff” measures: 2Q25 Measures Forecast: 1. Expected acceleration of the RMB2 trillion fiscal stimulus package approved by the NPC, targeting technology, infrastructure, and consumption. 2. Anticipated PBOC policy rate cut of 10-15bps and a 50bps reduction in the RRR, alongside a potential slim depreciation of the RMB against the USD. 3. Further relaxation of remaining home purchase restrictions in T1 cities. 4. Expansion of consumer subsidies to cover more goods and potential services. 5. Implementation of nationwide childbirth subsidy measures. 2H25 Measures Forecast: 1. Early allocation of central-local debt swap quotas to further boost infrastructure investment. 2. Expansion of the fiscal deficit of RMB1 trillion or more to support domestic demand. 3. Central government intervention to address the current housing inventory repurchase challenge. 4. Accelerated social welfare reforms. AAStocks Financial News |
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