Latest Search
Quote
| Back Zoom + Zoom - | ||||
|
<Research>M Stanley Outlines Key Predictions on Impact of US Reciprocal Tariffs on Economies of US/ EA/ CN/ JP/ UK (Table)
Recommend 3 Positive 5 Negative 4 |
||||
|
||||
|
Region/Viewpoints: US (1) If the relevant tariffs persist, the risk to US economic growth prospects will skew more clearly to the downside. (2) The Fed is not expected to cut rates in June, and rate cuts are likely to be delayed until 2026, with the terminal rate estimated at 2.50-2.75%. Euro Area (1) A permanent 20 ppt hike in US tariffs on EU goods will lead to a 60-120 bp decline in EA GDP. (2) Germany, Italy, and Ireland are expected to suffer more adverse effects from the heightened tariffs. Asia (1) The economic impact will be greater than during the 2018-19 period. (2) Risks will be greater for China, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore. China (1) China's economic growth is projected to be dragged down by 1.5-2 ppts. (2) Compared to the broker's baseline GDP forecast of 4.5%, the downside risk is about 0.5 ppts. Japan Considering auto tariffs alone, there is a 0.2-0.3 ppt downside risk to GDP, and new tariffs imply that the adverse impact could be greater. UK UK economic growth will face a downside risk of 0.3-0.6 ppts should the new US tariff regime persist. AAStocks Financial News |
||||
Copied to Clipboard
 |
||||
