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<Commodity> Shanxi Coal Output Resumption Below Expectations; China Coking Coal Prices Hit Near Two-Year High; Indonesia Export Curbs Lift Asian Benchmark
An explosion at a coal mine in Qinyuan County, Changzhi City, Shanxi Province on May 22 resulted in 82 deaths, 128 injuries and two people missing. The aftermath of the accident an...
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<Commodity> Shanxi Coal Output Resumption Below Expectations; China Coking Coal Prices Hit Near Two-Year High; Indonesia Export Curbs Lift Asian Benchmark
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An explosion at a coal mine in Qinyuan County, Changzhi City, Shanxi Province on May 22 resulted in 82 deaths, 128 injuries and two people missing. The aftermath of the accident and ongoing safety inspections have pushed domestic coking coal prices to their highest level since 2024. Dalian coking coal futures rose as much as 1.9% this morning (8th) to RMB1,486.5 per ton, the highest since October 2024, before paring most of the gains. Prices have climbed about 14% so far this month.

Some coking coal mines in Shanxi Province remain closed, constraining supply. Citing Hongze Research senior analyst Bu Tong, Bloomberg reported that coal production recovery in Shanxi has fallen short of expectations, while intensive safety supervision continues to keep the spot market tight; seaborne coal prices are also catching up rapidly. According to Hongze Research data, as of last Friday (5th), about 60 million tons of annual production capacity remained suspended. The firm said output at mines that have resumed operations is still about 20% to 30% below pre-accident levels.

Meanwhile, new export regulations in Indonesia, the world’s largest coal exporter, have delayed shipments, tightening supply just as summer approaches and power plant fuel demand rises. Newcastle coal futures for June delivery climbed to USD148.75 per ton last Friday, the highest level for a front-month contract since August 2024.

Indonesia said last month it would control shipments of key commodities including coal. A new system implemented in June has caused disruptions, leading to shipment delays. This has fueled expectations that Australian supply will help fill the gap. At the same time, after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and an attack on Qatar’s largest export facility disrupted about 20% of global natural gas flows, countries including Japan have expanded coal usage to reduce reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG). According to data compiled by Bloomberg, utilization rates at Japan’s coal-fired power plants, a key buyer of Australian coal, have increased compared with last year. (da/u)~

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